North American Class 8 truck market, forecasts to 2013

The North American market for Class 8 trucks faces major challenges over the next five years. With an economy likely to be sluggish at best, a major change in emissions legislation due in 2010 and the increasing demands of a globalised truck manufacturing industry, any business involved in either the manufacture or the use of trucks will need to be at the top of the game if profitability is to be maintained.
 
This report endeavours to project market developments over the next five years through to 2013, taking into account the next protocol change due on 1 January 2010. It brings together opinions from and conversations with both sides of the demand and supply equation within the North American truck market.
 
Three five year forecast sets are presented, based on three different market scenarios - 'benign', 'optimistic' and 'severe'. In addition, the report examines the key legislative and related technical issues that will inevitably shape the market and dissects the strategies that the major truck OEMs and key engine suppliers are implementing to steer them through what could be difficult times.

Table of Contents :

List of figures

Introduction

Market forecasts
Overview
Consumer spending and the credit squeeze
A declining dollar
Oil prices

’Optimistic’ forecast
’Benign’ forecast
’Severe’ forecast
Conclusions

The OEMs
AB Volvo
Daimler Trucks
Navistar
Paccar

The engine suppliers
Caterpillar
Cummins
Detroit Diesel Corporation (DDC)

Winners and losers

Emissions legislation and the SCR versus EGR debate
Background
Technological Overview
Urea infrastructure demands
Operational issues
The European experience
SCR versus EGR – the winners and losers

Conclusions

List of figures
Table 1: The North American market for Class 8 trucks, 2007-2012
Figure 1: The North American market for Class 8 trucks, 2007-2012